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Apart
from the conventionally encountered investment risk factors, there is also an
additional set of risks embedded
in technology start-up investments. These risks are causated by various underlying
factors. Some of these risk drivers are discussed in brief
below.
-- A
general empirical fact is that, ceteris paribus, the "Potential
Value" of a new Technology as well as its "Lead Time to Commercialization"
are both likely to have high positive correlations to how advanced the new
Technology is vis-a-vis the prevailing state of the art. Put more
simply, more advanced technologies can deliver better returns (higher
"potential value") but also carry more risks (due to the longer "lead time
to commercialization").
-- The
above time-to-market related risks are further multiplied
by our preference for extreme early stage investing
in new-technology driven start-ups. This is in line with
the Valuation Time-effect
model which predicts, inter alia, that
valuations tend to become relatively accurate only close to (and of course
beyond) the commercialization transition (the market launch). This
risk-multiplier is all the more important in our case since many new
technologies have a long time-to-market, and we prefer to invest
as early as possible in the pre-commercialization stage -- which
is well before the technology-market interface can
generally be expected to have developed recognizable/analyzable
contours.
-- Since, as mentioned above, we generally try to invest well before the technology-market interface contours are recognizable/analyzable, hence we also face the associated challenge of assessing the merits and demerits of new technologies (including some in unfamiliar sectors) as rapidly as possible. Though difficult, this speedy assessment is absolutely necessary since the longer we take, the more are the chances of the valuations getting driven up through competitive pressures from the broader investor space. Though necessary, this need for speed in turn creates a set of evaluation-accuracy linked risk factors.
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